How much could the polls change between now and election day?

How much could the polls change between now and election day?

Just one week from today, millions of people across the country will be voting in the General Election.

Opinion polls continue to suggest the Conservative Party enjoys a comfortable lead over Labour.

The latest poll averages put the Tories on 43%, with Labour on 33%, the Liberal Democrats on 13%, the Brexit Party on 3% and the Greens on 3%.

But what are the chances of the polls shifting decisively between now and election day?

General Election 2019 opinion polls
(PA Graphics)

But on election day, the Tories finished on 43% – one point below where they had been a week earlier – while Labour had risen six points to 41%.

The Lib Dems were still on 8%, while both Ukip and the Greens finished on 2%.

The change was enough to deny the Tories a majority and produce a hung parliament.

POLITICS Election Polls
(PA Graphics)

One week before polling day in 2015, the Tories were averaging 34% and Labour 33%, with Ukip on 13%, the Lib Dems on 9% and the Greens on 5%.

These figures pointed to a hung parliament – but come election day, the Tories opened up a seven-point lead over Labour to finish on 38% while Labour ended on 31%.

Ukip, the Lib Dems and Greens finished on 13%, 8% and 4% respectively.

This was enough to give the Conservatives a small overall majority in Parliament.

POLITICS Election Polls
(PA Graphics)

It also serves as a reminder that polls are not predictions, merely snapshots of opinion at a certain point in time.

– All figures quoted above are for vote shares in Great Britain

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